MaximBet NFL Picks Week 4: A Classic Aaron Rodgers Vs. Brian Hoyer Quarterback Duel
The best picks for Patriots/Packers, Seahawks/Lions, Jets/Steelers, and Cardinals/Panthers from MaximBet.
(Depositphotos/Thousandwords)
We’re nearly a month into the season and the 2022 NFL campaign is getting harder to get a handle on with every new stat. In three weeks, the NFL has been a chaotic mess, with startling upsets being par for the course at this point. And while I can appreciate delivering a shocker as much as the next guy, there’s only so many fingers you can take at once.
We had a solid week three, missing the upset thanks to Carson Wentz being all Carson Wentz-y, but we nailed everything else and were a game away (again, thanks to the Wentz-ter) from hitting our parlay.
If anything, that just makes me hungrier to nail them all this week. Thanks to the odds, lines and totals available at MaximBet*, I have the tools with which to do it.
Lock of the Week
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
I’ve given the 2022 Patriots a hard time in this weekly NFL picks article because it’s fun and I like to do it. There’s a good two decades of animosity built up against the New England franchise and any time I can really hammer them while winning money, it’s like Mac Jones eyeing at a two-yard check down to a running back—I can’t miss.
Speaking of Mac Jones, he’s probably not going to play, so the Pats will toss the fully inflated ball to back up Brian Hoyer and not even Hoyer’s mom is excited about that. She just added the Packers defense to her own Daily Fantasy line up.
It’s a big line and an all but worthless moneyline (Packers -455), but there’s something to be said for our nation’s preeminent horse de-wormer spokesman, Aaron Rodgers. And that is, yes, he’s an anti-vaxxer and a legit weirdo, but at least he didn’t steal millions of dollars from welfare recipients like his predecessor, Brett Favre. An ayahuasca enema here and there is nowhere near as bad as robbing poor people to build a volleyball facility which was probably, in no way, done in order to meet new young women who had yet to receive more than just an eggplant emoji from Favre on their cellular devices.
Regardless, the Pack defense held Tom Brady, New England’s former QB, to all of 12 points last week. I feel like Brian Hoyer (and even an unhealthy Mac Jones) will fare significantly worse at Lambeau.
Take the Packers at -10.5.
Worst Games of the Week
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Remember back when Geno Smith was all cocky after knocking off the Denver Broncos in Week 1? After, Smith said, “They wrote me off. I ain’t write back though.” Two weeks later Smith seems to be penning letters like they’re being read aloud in a Ken Burns Civil War documentary. Oh, and here’s a stat you’ll never see coming — the Lions are No. 2 in the NFL in scoring three weeks in.
When it comes to the Jets, the sooner Joe Flacco hits the bench and Zach Wilson gets out of your GamGam’s DMs the better. While I like the Steelers here, the only thing smaller than the contingent calling for Mitchell Trubisky to remain the starting quarterback is Kenny Pickett’s throwing hand. That’s what you’re looking for in your new franchise starting quarterback. Small “hand” energy.
Take the Lions at -5.5 and/or the Steelers at -3.5.
A Shocking Upset of the Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
Both of these teams should probably be 0-3 heading into this game. The Cardinals had a late game comeback against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 for their only victory of the season, thanks in large part to Call of Duty not offering a Double-XP weekend the night before.
Carolina picked up its first win last week, 22-14, over the New Orleans Saints, who were hobbled by Jameis Winston’s…checks notes… broken back. Facing a team QBed by a player with four fractured vertebrae, Baker Mayfield barely showed up at all, completing less than 50 percent of his passes.
Arizona is in one of the toughest divisions in football and playing one of the hardest schedules in the league. The Panthers have one of the worst rosters in the sport led by a quarterback who completes more passes to the mascots in the Heisman House than he does to his team’s actual receivers. I do not understand this line at all and, when it comes to laying down some cash, that’s always a good thing.
Take the Cardinals at +1.5 or the moneyline at +100.
Drop $10 on a Four-Team Parlay
Why do y’all sleep on me? I need reasons. Uh, I got plaques in the mail, peak season. Shout out to UPS workers makin’ sure I receive ‘em. You can do it too, believe it. All you need is to hit this nifty little four-team parlay.
We’re building this parlay Jenga stack the way we always do, starting with the upset we’ve already leaned into, Arizona Cardinals +100.
With that, we’re going to add the Tennessee Titans (+140), Jacksonville Jaguars (+220) and Houston Texans (+190).
Both the Titans and Indianapolis Colts saved their seasons last week, but after winless starts, that’s a battle that will happen every Sunday for a while. This is a match up between the NFL’s two best running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, which means it will almost certainly come down to Ryan Tannehill vs Matt Ryan. Tannehill has looked OK this season. Ryan constantly appears like he’s late for his tee time.
The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated and over-hyped, so it’s the perfect time for their former coach, Doug Pederson, to shock them in front of their home fans with Trevor Lawrence, who now looks like the second coming of Peyton Manning without the Easter Island Moai forehead.
Lastly, we have the Texans, the NFL’s answer to the question, “What if Jim Jones started a football team instead of a suicide cult?” They have been a surprisingly tough out for everyone this year. The Los Angeles Chargers are significantly better, but Justin Herbert has been nearly cut in two for the last two weeks and is being cared for a by a team doctor famous for stabbing his predecessor in the lung. Oh, and last year this same Texans team blew out the Chargers 41-29 the day after Christmas.
A $10 parlay* bet on these moneylines pays $435.
Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter
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