NFL Week 15: The Best Football Bets, Odds and Expert Picks
The absolute best lock bet, teaser bet, prop bet and parlay bet for NFL Week 15, according to the experts at BetOnline.
Presented by BetOnline.AG
We’re heading into the final weeks of 2020, a year we’re all glad to see in the rearview. But there’s no reason to end it on a down note. We can take that $500 sitting in your bank account right now and magically turn it into so much more just in time to blow it all on presents for the holidays.
If you’ve not broken the seal on sports betting before, just relax. We’re here to help. BetOnline makes it easy, quick and will even toss an extra $1,000 into your account when you join today.
As always, the odds featured below are courtesy of BetOnline.AG.
Lock of the Week
We have a “lock” problem this week and it comes down to moneylines that aren’t worth looking at. The Los Angeles Rams are a 17-point favorite at home over the New York Jets as they should be, but the Rams moneyline is -1700. There’s no value there. Same with the Baltimore Ravens at -850 over the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers at -700 over the Cincinnati Bengals. Yes, these look like sure things. But do you really want to risk $250 to win $14?
Nah, this isn’t why you come to me, come into my house on the day of my daughter’s cat’s third birthday and ask me to pick a lock – for money.
We have two solid choices this week that offer enough of a return to plunk that cash down. I’m going with the Green Bay Packers at -410 over the Carolina Panthers Saturday. I’m picking it over the Buffalo Bills at -300 over the Denver Broncos because Denver has been surprisingly competitive at the worst possible times this season. The Bills have won two big games in a row, knocking off the Steelers last week 26-16 with Josh Allen putting the league on notice that he could be venturing into franchise quarterback status. It was their 10th win, all but secured a playoff spot and put them a game away from clinching the AFC East.
They’re primed for a let down is what I’m saying. Makes me nervous.
The Pack, on the other hand, knows they can’t overlook Carolina, but also should be able to shove them around on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey reportedly remains out for the Panthers.
And Green Bay can realistically take over the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win. Consider this lock a gift on my daughter’s cat’s third birthday.
Pick: $250 on the Packers at -410 at BetOnline.AG
Teaser of the Week
If you’ve been following along all season (and making some money) then you know what’s happening next. While I might have looked at those Rams and Ravens moneylines and scoffed, it doesn’t mean we can’t use these two games to award ourselves fabulous gifts and prizes.
The beauty of the two-team teaser is you can take a couple of games with worrisome lines, like the Ravens at -14 and the Rams at -17 and adjust them to more your liking.
Baltimore is a consistent worry when it comes to handicapping simply because the basic nature of their offense. Its predictability and the fact that good teams, with good defensive coaches, can slow it down considerably. The Ravens offensive game plan, as exemplified in Monday night’s win over the Cleveland Browns, is for the defense to do something dumb and make a mistake, whether it be biting on a high school level run fake or dropping the player they’re supposed to cover in the vain hopes of somehow tackling Lamar Jackson in spite of the fact he’s 30 yards away. Cleveland did a lot of that.
The Jags simply don’t have the players on defense to stop Baltimore. As for the Jets and the Rams, New York doesn’t have the players to stop anyone.
So why the teaser? Because NFL coaches, for whatever selfish reasons they choose, don’t seem to care about spreads and totals. They just want to win and go home. It’s narcissistic if you ask me.
Because of that, we’re going with the 7.5 teaser this week and whittle those spreads down to a manageable size just in case Lamar Jackson decides to pound a Denny’s Grand Slam Breakfast before kickoff again.
Teaser pick: $200 on the Ravens at -6.5 and the Rams at -9.5 at BetOnline.AG
Prop of the Week
As the season winds down, the prop choices continue to dwindle, but we still have some plus money available in the Most Receptions 2020-21 Regular Season category. Currently Buffalo Bills wideout Stephon Diggs leads the odds at +175, with Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers right on his heels at +200. The Green Bay Packers’ Devante Adams is +250. DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs round out the selections at +600.
I like Allen and I’ll tell you why. Buffalo is a victory away from clinching the AFC East and a home playoff game. With three losses (to Kansas City’s one), they’re probably realistically out of the home field race. That means when it comes to Week 17, facing a tough Miami Dolphins team likely fighting to stay in the playoff picture themselves,
Buffalo could rest starters. Frankly, Miami might already be locked into their Wild Card spot then, so they could do the same.
There’s no way Kelce plays any significant time in Week 17. Hopkins and Adams might, depending on what their teams are playing for, a Wild Card spot and Home Field advantage respectively. But, really, there’s only one guy on this list playing for stats that is guaranteed, barring injury, to suit up for the next three games; Keenan Allen.
Pick: $40 on Keenan Allen getting the most receptions for the 2020-21 Regular Season at BetOnline.AG
The Crazy, Longshot, Throwing-A-Dart Parlay of the Week
I gotta be cool, relax, get hip and get on my tracks. Take a back seat, hitch-hike and take a long ride on my motorbike until I’m ready. To pick a crazy little thing like a parlay.
We know who we like already, the Ravens (-850), the Rams (-1700), the Packers (-410) so there’s no reason not to stick them in there. But where we can make some real cash is figuring out who’s ripe for an upset. I’ve got two possibilities that make the $10 you would spend on a couple of double mocha frappuccino into considerably more.
We already talked about how the Broncos (+250) are dangerous and Buffalo is due a letdown. The Kansas City Chiefs are in much the same boat, consistently playing down to opponents and facing one of the best defenses in the league on the road in the New Orleans Saints (+145). Toss in a New England Patriots (+120) bounce back win over the favored Dolphins and you can turn that frappuccino fund into a trip to a restaurant with a Michelin star. Post vaccine, of course.
A $10 parlay bet on these teams pays $267.70 at BetOnline.AG
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