Getty Images
It was bound to happen at some point, but last week was the first shocking upset I didn’t secure like Jon Gruden installing a new email program on his MacBook.
A victory was on the table as long as Daniel Jones was healthy and in the game. But as soon as he hit the concussion tent and Mike Glennon took the field for the New York Giants, I knew what I was about to take looked just like Russell Wilson’s middle finger after Aaron Donald spiked it like a beach volleyball: A hard and ugly “L.”
But every week brings new life and we still have 12 of them to go in this 2021 regular season. So, I have perused the NFL Week 6 betting odds at MaximBet to get our upset train back on track like we did with the lock last week after Tom Brady betrayed us all (or just me, specifically).
Lock of the Week
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New England Patriots
We had a couple of contenders for the lock this week, but the Detroit Lions (+3.5 point spread at MaximBet, hosting the Cincinnati Bengals) makes me nervous, hanging around in games and managing to backdoor cover while still keeping their entire fanbase in therapy.
The Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5 at the Denver Broncos) also tossed their eye patch in the ring after the week they just had, but Derek Carr is still on that team, as is Darren Waller. And, frankly, shooting Gruden out the airlock could end up an addition-by-subtraction kind of thing. I’m not confident in Denver.
So, and I hope you are sitting down because I sure am, I’m picking the Mike McCarthy-led Cowboys to cruise past the Patriots at Foxboro.
New England has won just two games this season, both over teams starting rookie QBs (the Jets and Texans). Dallas is not starting a rookie, instead going with an MVP candidate and a dude that already has Comeback Player of the Year sewn up, Dak Prescott.
Last week’s 25 points scored against the hapless Texans and their nameless defense was the Pats’ best offensive output of the season. It would take 40 to beat the Cowboys and 36 to keep them from covering.
New England quarterback Mac Jones has thrown at least one pick in his last three games, and this week he is facing the current best corner in the league, Trevon Diggs. Diggs has at least one interception in every single game this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs is allowing opposing quarterbacks a league low 38.9 rating. A reminder, throwing the ball into the dirt on every pass play nets a 39.6 rating.
Yes, McCarthy is still the Cowboys head coach and, as such, is a constant danger to destroy any bet or parlay in which he’s participating, but Kellen Moore is calling the plays and probably landing himself a head coaching job next year in the process. All he has to do is keep convincing McCarthy that the Waffle House menu they hand him during pregame is a playcall sheet and Dallas should be fine.
Take the Cowboys and the points (but if you’re nervous since it’s at New England, the moneyline at -180 looks good too).
Worst Games Of The Week
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
Hey, if you’re an NFL fan in London, all I can say is, the NFL hates you. Sure, it appears they’re trying to appeal to a foreign fanbase by holding a couple of games in the UK, but encoring the Jets vs. Falcons with the Dolphins vs. the Jags should be taken as the insult it is.
I’d like to make a joke about a couple of shitty soccer teams playing over here to get Americans’ attention, but I have no clue who any of them are. I can’t even name Ted Lasso’s team and I watch the show. And the stadium where this game is being held, “Tottenham Hotspur?” It sounds like a sex act you’d find listed on Urban Dictionary that requires a bottle of Cholula, Oscar Meyer coldcuts and a chukka boot.
As for the Colts and Texans, if these teams were Madden franchises, you’d already be simming to the draft.
Take the Dolphins (-177) moneyline and/or the Colts at -10
A Shocking Upset Of The Baltimore Ravens?
I’m going to be real. This is the FOX Game of the Week and the way both these teams are playing, it could absolutely turn into an AFC Championship preview. Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are right there with Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray in the MVP conversation.
Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman has only recently, over the last couple of weeks, figured out how to coach an actual NFL offense. I’m a big believer in Lamar Jackson and I always have been. I think the “ceiling” draft experts like to talk about his horseshit and one of the reasons why is no one seemed impressed with Jackson’s “ceiling” when he was coming out of Louisville in 2018 because it was nothing short of Kryptonian.
I have wanted Roman to stop trying to murder Jackson by calling 30 QB runs a game for the last four years and finally, he’s done it. He’s unleashed Jackson as a passer, a real quarterback, and all Lamar has done is thrown for 758 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions over the last two games.
Yes, he’s still been dangerous with his legs, but it’s when plays break down. Roman has turned his Pop Warner offense into an actual pro attack and it’s been glorious. The Ravens came back from 19 points last week against the Colts. You can’t do that plodding away with the run and you sure as hell can’t do that with your all-universe QB in the concussion tent.
As for the Chargers, I pegged them as a playoff team in the preseason based on their talent, Herbert’s rookie year and what new head coach Brandon Staley would bring to the table defensively. What I wasn’t expecting Staley to bring them was an AFC West championship, a possible No. 1 seed in the playoffs and an NFL Coach of the Year trophy.
So why am I thinking upset? Because I am feeling the Chargers right now. They have a loaded roster, a wunderkind coach and Keenan Allen hasn’t hit 100 yards since Week 2 so he’s due.
Take the Chargers at +3.
Drop $10 On A Four-Team Parlay
You could never back down. You never learned to take your time. Oh, Alexander Hamilton, when America sings for you, will they know what you overcame to make a sweet pile of cash on a four-team parlay?
We’re building this one as we usually do, starting with the moneyline (Chargers +130) for an upset that we already like.
Here’s what I want you to add to it; the Carolina Panthers (+100), the Arizona Cardinals (+150) and the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders (+165).
The Panthers should have Christian McCaffrey back and are just giving up a point to the Minnesota Vikings at home. Minnesota has not won a road game this season.
The Cards are +3 dogs to the Cleveland Browns, but who are you going to trust if this one comes down to crunch time? Baker Mayfield, who has yet to deliver in that situation in four seasons or Kyler Murray, who seemingly does it every other week?
Finally, we were scared off the Raiders in our lock, so let’s take that eerie feeling and give them the “new coach” upset over the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Las Vegas has won four of the last five against the Broncos.
A $10 parlay to win on these four teams pays $297.
Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter.
Ready for some football action? Take advantage of MaximBet’s massive welcome offer that puts a 100% bonus up to $1,000 back into your betting account after your first deposit. Sign up here today to maximize your sports betting experience with MaximBet.