We’ve reason to celebrate after a stellar week, back to our old habits of hitting both the lock and the shocking upset as we did to open the first month of the season. 

But I don’t feel like partying, because we were four points away from hitting a $702 four-team parlay at MaximBet on Sunday and, honestly, I’m taking it personally. 

And I know exactly who to blame: Seattle Seahawks backup quarterback Geno Smith. Smith, for the third game in a row, had the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game with a final scoring drive. For the third game in a row, Smith took a dump on the field, as he had so many times as the starter for the New York Jets, including when his former teammate IK Enempkpali punched him out of a job. 

Yeah, it was just $10. and with what we made on our lock and upset pick, we, unlike Smith when Enempkpali gave his jaw the five-point exploding heart technique punch back in 2015, could take the hit. 

Still, it stings and this week doesn’t give us much to work with. We have a total of one game Sunday between teams with winning records, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) at the New Orleans Saints (4-2). 

We have four games (Rams at Texans, Dolphins at Bills, Bengals at Jets, Giants at Chiefs) that have double-digit spreads. We are cursed, just in time for Halloween, with six contests between teams without winning records. NFL RedZone’s Scott Hanson should just be allowed to start taking Talisker shots at the 1 p.m. kickoff. At least make the day interesting. 

So, it’s with this dumpster fire of dead rat kings that I have compiled some picks for you and yours, straight from the NFL Week 8 odds at MaximBet. 

Lock Of The Week

Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) at New York Jets

Yes, you can look at that and say the same thing you would if you saw a member of Mötley Crüe forming a rail of cocaine atop a Porta Potty toilet seat before hitting the stage at the Idaho Potato Festival, “that’s a damn fat line.”

But that’s what I do here. I don’t tease or buy these down. I’m picking a game, a lock, based on the line they give me and I’m here to tell you, I’m feeling good about a 10.5-point spread MaximBet is offering from a Bengals team that hung 41 on the Baltimore Ravens last week versus a Jets squad that already sucked before they had to toss the keys to backup quarterback Mike White. 

White hadn’t thrown a pass in the NFL until last week. Two of them went to the New England Patriots in what turned into the biggest blowout (54-13) of the season so far. 

Take the Bengals and the lay the 10.5 points. 

Worst Games of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Here’s the thing in picking the worst games. They’re bad. They suck and I’m not even tracking how I’m doing while picking them. The only difficult thing here should have been selecting the shittiest games out of the NFL’s shittiest week. It turns out, thanks to the Panthers and Lions, it wasn’t hard at all. 

Panthers QB Sam Darnold was benched last week after throwing his seventh interception in his last four games in a 25-3 loss to the New York Giants. The Lions are the NFL’s only winless team and could, conceivably be its first 0-17 franchise in league history. 

But I don’t think they will. The Panthers, though, they’re ready to hit “sim to the draft” on the rest of the season.

Take the Falcons moneyline (-165) and/or the Lions at +3.5.

A Shocking Upset Of The Cleveland Browns?

Baker Mayfield, probably at the behest of his agent, is apparently going to play with one arm Sunday. He has a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and while, on paper, that might seem ok, I have to believe an NFL quarterback needs his entire body to play the position successfully. Mayfield isn’t alone on the Browns’ injury report. It should basically just read, “everybody.”

The Steelers have won two straight, are healthy and coming off a bye. Until last year, Ben Roethlisberger was the all-time winningest quarterback at Cleveland’s FirstEnergy Stadium. Roethlisberger is 24-3-1 all time against the Browns and two of those losses came last year. 

Take the Steelers at +3.5.

Drop $10 On A Four-Team Parlay

How does a ragtag army, in need of a showers somehow defeat a global superpower? How do we emerge victorious from this quagmire? Leave the battlefield waving Betsy Ross’ flag higher? By dropping a Hamilton on a nice little four-team parlay.

This one’s easy, because we already like two upsets in our picks here; the Steelers (+165) and the Lions (+159). Now all we need is to talk ourselves into two more and, frankly, I like what I see. 

I’m narrowing it down to the Chicago Bears (+173) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (+143). 

The chorus calling for Matt Nagy to be fired has reached a fever pitch this week as the Bears play host to the banged-up San Francisco 49ers. If you follow that team at all, you know that means… a Bears victory to shut everyone up for seven days. 

As for the Jags, they play at Seattle who, at this point, has lost three straight as well as their last three home games. Toss the coaches out of it, who do you feel better about putting your money on; Trevor Lawrence or Geno Smith? And besides, Smith owes us one.

A $10 parlay bet win on these four teams pays $445.

Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter.

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